|
|
NFL Teasers 2007
This is where we
will track a teaser system that was developed and written about by professional
gambler and author Stanford Wong. He wrote about it in an entire chapter
of
his book
Sharp Sports Betting. The book is a must for anyone
interested in sports gambling.
Teasers are exotic
bets that most people regard as 'sucker bets', but Wong did in depth statistical
analysis in the book and concluded that under specific conditions, certain
teasers provide a positive expectation in NFL contests.
A teaser is a
combination of two bets simultaneously placed against the spread where the
player gets points added to the lines of the teams that are bet.
Typically, on an ordinary two team teaser, six points are added to the line of
each game and the odds are adjusted. (Note: if your sportsbook
makes you pay more than -110 (i.e. -120) on a two team tease, this system is not
recommended) Ideally, you want a sportsbook that will adjust the lines
by 6 points and let you place the bets at even money (+100), but those are hard
to find. You should be able to find a book that lets you place a two team
teaser with 6 points added to the spread on a dime line (-110). If you can
do that, then this system has got a chance.
Here's how it works: Identify small underdogs - teams getting 1.5, 2, or 2.5 points - in the
NFL schedule and identify favorites that are laying 7.5, 8, or 8.5. If there are at least two of them on the schedule in any
given week, tease all the 2-team combinations of them so that you've covered the
3 and the 7 for point spread purposes. The theory is that such a large
percentage of games land on point spreads of 3 or 7 that this will take
advantage of that percentage.
Beware:
Some online sportsbooks have become aware of this system and offer games as +2.5
with extra vig (-125) - don't fall into this trap. This is not a game that
fits our criteria. It's really just a game that should have a 3
point line with a dime line (-110). Essentially, they're forcing you to
'buy it' off the 3 point spread and then tease it up to 8.5. Another way
to think of this is that they're really only giving you a 5.5 point adjustment
on the actual spread in a tease. Keep those games out of your rotations.
One last note,
the system calls for judgment when there are 3 point dogs and 9 point favorites
on the board. In these cases, we'll indicate which teams we're using in
the teasers. Thus, the games that we recommend here may not be perfect
according to the "Wong" system, but rather they're games based on our
own analysis in conjunction with those basic principles.
|
|
This week:
NFL Basic Strategy Teasers for Week 15
Actual point spreads: 49ers +8.5
Teased Spreads: NONE
--->Not enough games fit the criteria, no teaser bets this week.
NFL Basic Strategy Teasers for Week 14
Actual point spreads: NONE
Teased Spreads: NONE
--->No games fit the criteria, no teaser bets this week.
NFL Basic Strategy Teasers for Week 13
These are the games that fit the basic strategy teasers system:
Actual point spreads: Chicago +1.5, NY Jets +2
Teased Spreads: Bears +7.5, Jets +8
--->1 two-team Teaser ... Result 1-0
NFL Basic Strategy Teasers for Week 12
These are the games I suggest we use in teasers:
Actual point spreads: Detroit +3 (ev), Denver +1.5 (-110), Cincinnati +1.5 (-110), Jacksonville -8 (-110), St Louis +3 (-110)
Teased Spreads: Lions +9, Broncos +7.5, Bengals +7.5, Jags -2, Rams +9
--->10 two-team Teasers ... Result 5-5
NFL Basic Strategy Teasers for Week 11
These are the games I suggest we use in teasers:
Actual point spreads: New Orleans +1.5 (-110), Detroit +3 (-110), San Francisco +3 (-110), Tennessee +2 (-110)
Teased Spreads: Saints +7.5, Lions +9, 49ers +9, Titans +8
--->6 two-team Teasers ... Result 0-6
NFL Basic Strategy Teasers for Week 10
These are the games I suggest we use in teasers:
Actual point spreads: Miami +2.5 (-110), Giants +1.5 (-110), Eagles +2.5 (-110)
Teased Spreads: Dolphins +8.5, Giants +7.5, Philadelphia +8.5
--->3 two-team Teaser ... Result 1-2
NFL Basic Strategy Teasers for Week 9
These are the games I suggest we use in teasers:
Actual point spreads: Green Bay +2.5 (-110), Buffalo +1 (-110), Seattle +1.5 (-110), Philadelphia +3 (ev)
Teased Spreads: Green Bay +8.5, Buffalo +7, Seattle +7.5, Philadelphia +9
--->6 two-team Teaser ... Result: 3-3
NFL Basic Strategy Teasers for Week 8
These are the games I suggest we use in teasers:
Actual point spreads: Minnesota +1 (-110), San Francisco +2 (-110)
Teased Spreads: Vikings +7, 49ers +8
--->1 two-team teaser bet - loss
NFL Basic Strategy Teasers for Week 7
These are the games I suggest we use in teasers:
Actual point spreads: Washington -8 (-110), New Orleans -8 (-110), Tampa Bay +2.5 (-110), Houston +1.5 (-110), Kansas City +2.5 (-110), Seattle -8.5 (-110)
Teased Spreads: Washington -2, New Orleans -2, Tampa Bay +8.5, Houston +7.5, Kansas City +8.5, Seattle -2.5
--->15 two-team teaser bets, only loss on any side was Washington, 10-5 on all the two teamers
NFL Basic Strategy Teasers for Week 6
Actual point spreads: NONE
Teased Spreads: NONE
--->No games fit the criteria, no teaser bets this week.
NFL Basic Strategy Teasers for Week 5
These are the games I suggest we use in teasers:
Actual point spreads: Kansas City Chiefs +2 (-110), Tennessee Titans -8 (-110), New York Jets +3 (+105)
Teased Spreads: KC +8, Titans -2, Jets +9
--->3 two-team, 6 point teasers and one 3 team, 6 point teaser
--->3 two-team Teaser ... Result: 0-3
--->1 3 team Teaser ... Result: 0-1
NFL Basic Strategy Teasers for Week 4
Actual point spreads: Minnesota Vikings +1.5 (-110), SF 49ers +2.5 (-110) [potentially Patriots -7.5]
Teased Spreads: Vikings +7.5, 49ers +8.5, [potentially Pats -1.5]
--->1 Teaser definitely, [if Pats -1.5 is available, then it's advisable to play 3 two game teasers]
If you've been playing these and you're up, then consider a small play on the three teamer also
--->1 Teaser ... Result: 0-1
NFL Basic Strategy Teasers for Week 3
Actual point spreads: Baltimore Ravens -7.5 (-110), Miami Dolphins +3 (EV), Cincinatti Bengals +3 (+105), Dallas Cowboys +3 (-105)
Teased Spreads: Miami +9, Ravens -1.5, Bengals +9, Dallas +9
--->6 Teasers using all the combinations of the 1 home favorite and the 3 road dogs
--->6 Teasers ... Result: 6-0
NFL Basic Strategy Teasers for Week 2
Actual point spreads: Green Bay Packers +2.5 (-110)
Teased Spreads:
--->Only one game fits the criteria, no teaser bets this week.
NFL Basic Strategy Teasers for Week 1
Actual point spreads: Carolina Panthers +1 (-110), Detroit Lions +2.5 (-110), Baltimore Ravens +2.5 (-110)
Teased Spreads: Panthers +7, Lions +8.5, Ravens +8.5
--->3 Teasers ... Result: 3-0
|
|
NFL Teasers – Weekly results (2007) |
|
|
Week # |
Win |
Loss |
|
1 |
3 |
0 |
|
2 |
0 |
0 |
|
3 |
6 |
0 |
|
4 |
0 |
1 |
|
5 |
0 |
3 |
|
6 |
0 |
0 |
|
7 |
10 |
5 |
|
8 |
0 |
1 |
|
9 |
3 |
3 |
|
10 |
1 |
2 |
|
11 |
0 |
6 |
|
12 |
5 |
5 |
|
13 |
1 |
0 |
|
14 |
0 |
0 |
|
15 |
0 |
0 |
|
16 |
|
|
|
17 |
|
|
|
TOTAL |
29 |
26 |
|
|
--
|
|
|
|
|
|
Spreadwinners