Week One is Here!

We open the season with joy in our hearts and profit on our minds. Since there is no data to go on yet, we tread lightly and venture our (hopefully) educated opinion based on team talent, preseason performance and the last few weeks of the previous campaign.

We will track the Defensive Top Ten theory, as well as its easier and cheaper counterpart – the USA Today top defense strategy. In addition, we will be matching man against machine with my selections against the computer genius of Mr. NFL,  whose selections will appear here starting in week two. 

The Defensive Top Ten and USA Today strategies will make their debut around week 4 or 5, depending on what data we have. In the meantime, you can count on Mr. NFL and myself to keep you in the winner’s circle, or at least out of the poor house, for the first four weeks. 

In addition, there are a couple of other very solid handicappers you ought to check out weekly. They are Dave Bender and Tobin Hensgen as well as Bill at Silly Sports.

MINNESOTA –10 over Carolina (up from 7½) (1*)
The Panthers couldn't win here last year (lost 31-14) with aging, but able all Pro QB Steve Burlien and now start an untested rookie in Heisman Trophy winner Chris Weinke. Carolina must travel to the hostile environs of Minnesota to face a club that has little defense, great offensive team speed (WRs Moss, Carter and Reed), led by a QB that can hurt you with either his arm or legs. 

The Viking defense is not likely to be tested here as the Panthers look overmatched. No doubt the death of Corey Stringer will be used as motivational fodder this season, especially in the opener. Money has shown strong support for Minnesota, causing the line to move two full points at the open. MINNESOTA 38 Carolina 17

Chicago +10½ at BALTIMORE
The departure of Chicago QB Cade McNown (to Miami) is a case of addition by subtraction. His failure to adequately prepare for Sunday caused a near mutiny last season. 

HC Dick Jaroun is on the hot seat to win now and starts QB Shane Mathews against the best "D" of recent memory in the opening defense of their title. 

Baltimore fields 11 of 12 returning defensive players and what figures to be an improved pass offense.  The loss of RB Jamal Lewis may be a step back from the powerful running game of a year ago, but rookie Jason Brookins, veterans Terry Allen and Obafemi Ayanbadejo should produce sufficient yardage to allow Elvis room to operate.  With this defense, they don't need many points. 

The line on this has bounced to 10½ and settled back to ten on several occasions. Remember that Super Bowl Champions have historically been bad point spread propositions. If you gotta bet this one, shop the line, or maybe buy the hook. As for me, I’ll just watch and see what type of offense these guys generate without a power running game. A better test comes next week against the Vikings.

Indianapolis -1 over NEW YORK JETS (1*)
The Colts quietly improved their defense over that last half of 2000 (11^th to 5^th in Defensive Points Per 100 Yards) and have added defensive talent through free agency (run stoppers Christian Peter, Mike Wells) and the draft (DBs: Idrees Bashir, Corey Bird, Raymond Walls and Jason Doering). 

With defenses that stack up fairly even we need look no farther than Peyton Manning vs. Vinnie Testaverde. I'll take Manning and what I contend will be an improved Colt defense. Indianapolis 27 JETS 17.

New England PK at CINCINNATI (down from Pats –2½)
 "Broken Windshield Game"

Patriot HC Bill Belichick is a great defensive mind, but has been a failure as the top guy. Bengal HC Dick LeBeau was also considered a defensive guru and is credited with creating the latest defensive flavor - the zone blitz.  Unfortunately because of the "talent" in Bengal land, LeBeau is attempting brain surgery with a meat cleaver with predictable results.  

Departure of erstwhile Bengals HC Bruce Coslett is another case of addition by subtraction as he seemed to suck the will to live out of every team he led (Coslett "coached" the Jets during their forgettable 1-15 campaign). Patriots have the defensive talent and the better QB, but I wouldn't lay points with either club.

New Orleans -1 at BUFFALO (down from N.O. +3) (2*)
The wrong team WAS favored.  Buffalo is rebuilding and looked fairly stout in preseason, which I feel is misleading.  Bills QB Rob Johnson not a durable type and must shake the west coast "surfer dude" image that doesn't play well in upstate New York. 

Saints QB Aaron Brooks looks sharp and has enough weapons to put points up versus the Bill defense. Buffalo lacks the ability to to match the offensive talent and intensity of New Orleans. The Saints defense, overrated in my mind, should chase Johnson enough to make the Buffalo offense look even worse than it is - no mean feat. 

It’s a shame the line dropped, because New Orleans plus a FG looked pretty attractive.  It attracted the money, which is why it's down to -1. I’ll still take it – and hopefully to the bank.  New Orleans 31 Buffalo 16.

Tampa –9 at DALLAS (2*)
Desperately seeking talent in Dallas. This club is a prime example of a franchise in disarray. First they sign WRs Joey Galloway and Rocket Ismail so Aikman had some deep threats after Michael Irvin went down. Then Jerry Jones released Aikman and signed a strong arm (and weak mind) in Tony Banks, who was anointed the Cowboy starter. 

After less than 30 preseason snaps, he dumped Banks and tapped rookie Quincy Carter, who lost his starting job at Georgia to a QB who isn't even the starter anymore. Dallas drafted Carter on the second round, which was way ahead of where every other NFL team had him. Does this seem like a plan or smack of desperation?

Dallas HC Dave Campo is nothing more that a Jerry Jones puppet and I can just about see Jones' hand up Campo's back.  Jones made wholesale changes without notifying the respective coaches, which undermines their ability to gain the trust and respect of their players.

Dallas is planning to run the QB option, a strategy I haven't seen in the NFL since 1981 when Bill Walsh (SF 49ers) used it because he was saddled with replacement players. Actually Carter’s option play looked pretty good against Oakland in Mexico City and Tampa had trouble with the scrambling of QB Michael Vick in the preseason finale at Atlanta. However when the whistle blows for real, the QB option is a ticket to IR in the NFL. Tell me where to send the flowers because this guy won’t last.

Campo remarked that this "team . . . is more talented than what we had back in '89 and '90." Hey Dave - check the record, the '89 club was 1-15, improving to 7-9 in 1990 for a cumulative tally of 8-24. I agree with Campo on his assessment. Hide the women and the children – this could get ugly as Dallas gets clubbed like a baby seal.
Tampa 34 Dallas 13

Pittsburgh +3 JACKSONVILLE (Down from 5½) (2*)
Though Pittsburgh is a revolving door for talent, led by the inconsistent quarterbacking of Kordell Stewart, they have a defense that can overpower what used to be the strength of this Jacksonville team – its offensive line. I tuned into the preseason match up between the Jaguars and the Giants with about 5 minutes to go in the first quarter. Jaguar QB Mark Brunell already had grass stains all over his jersey – a sign of things to come this season I am betting.

Jacksonville cut eleven players to keep Brunell and the latest loss was safety Carnell Lake. This club is hemorrhaging talent due to their inability to structure contacts within the realities of the salary cap. The last two clubs to get mired this deep in salary cap hell were Dallas and San Francisco, 5-11 and 6-10 respectively last year. The Jaguars are in for the same type of finish and I say it begins with a home loss to Pittsburgh. I'll play this on the money line as well, getting Pittsburgh +140. Pittsburgh 27 JACKSONVILLE 10.

Selections are rated from 1* to 3*.  
In most seasons I will have one 5* selection.  Stay tuned.